Archives for Markets - Page 6
Humans are hard-wired to belong to a group, typically one with shared cultural and/or socioeconomic attributes. Most people are social and have a natural desire to be accepted by the group, and therefore adopt the group’s customs and behaviors. An individual may behave quite differently when away from the group.…
It is a principle of good science that all effort must be made to falsify a hypothesis. Only when that attempt has failed can the hypothesis be, at least tentatively, accepted. But humans are not wired that way; we tend to accept evidence that supports an existing point of view…
Loss aversion is thought to have developed in the early years of human evolution. An earlier time when the loss of resources, such as food, fire or life, had much more serious consequences that an incremental gain. Thus a loss is felt much more acutely than a gain. Loss aversion…
The chart below shows returns on various asset classes in USD for the first two months of 2016. For me, I am long gold and silver, but also oil. An average start to the year. The chart is courtesy Financial Visualisations, a site that is well worth a visit. So…
Last week I quoted Jonathan Tepper of Valiant Perceptions. He expects to see a price decline of 30% to 50% in Australian housing. Well didn’t he get hammered. The vested interests were out for blood, and that continued over the weekend. One of Jonathan’s observations was questionable practices by mortgage…
A visit to Sydney by Jonathan Tepper, of Variant Perceptions, has caused much wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst vested interests in the real estate market. He considers that Australian housing is in a massive bubble and he expects to see a price decline of 30% to 50%. Along with…