Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine said in early January that a bear market would commence when the long term trendline for US 30-year Treasuries is broken, and the yield rose above 2.99%. The rate was 3.08% last Friday, the day the DOW fell 2.5%. But Gundlach, in a webcast titled “Commodities: Playbook for late Cycle Investing”, is bullish on commodities in such an environment.

His principle arguments are that co-ordinated global growth and a declining US dollar are bullish for commodities. However, the highlight of his presentation is the chart below, which he calls the “Chart of the Year”.

If Gundlach is correct, and he often is, commodities have a long upward trend ahead. Of course, it may be that stocks have a long downward trend ahead. Whatever the end result, a very interesting chart.

gundlach

05 February 2018 Commodities