Archives for Macro - Page 7
Optimism bias is the inclination of people to believe that they are more likely to be successful than others, and less susceptible to adverse events than others. A well-known example of optimism bias is that, when surveyed, the vast majority of car drivers believe they are better drivers than average,…
According to the World Bank, Australia has a population density of 3 people per square kilometre. This is comparable to Libya and Mongolia, two countries that are also mostly desert. The population density of the US is 35, China 145 and the UK 267. Yesterday in Sydney was the 21st…
The US economy is perceived to be the strongest in the world. One of the reasons is that officially announced employment figures are good and getting better. However, a look behind the headline payroll statistics tells a different story. There is a significant disconnect between the robust reported payroll numbers…
Commercial shipping of all types is rapidly heading underwater. The containership market is almost back to the lows of the 2008 financial crisis, as measured by the Harpex Index. Bulk dry cargo rates are at the lowest ever, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index. Both charts are shown below.…
The China Labour Bulletin (“CLB”) has been keeping records on strikes and protests by Chinese workers since 2011. The three maps below, courtesy CLB, show the number of disputes for all of 2011, all of 2015 and the first few week of 2016. Last year was the worst on record,…
About 450 million years ago the Earth had a carbon dioxide level about twenty times the level today. Over the next 100 million years it fell to levels a little higher than today. The reason for the decline was the first occurrence of vast, planet-wide, forests. The trees in these…